James House
Peak Season Trading: How Intelligent Activation Will Define Retail Success
By James House, Chief Commercial Officer, Reward
The Golden Quarter has always been retail’s defining moment – when understanding and responding to customers determines success or failure. But 2025 is shaping up to be one of the most challenging yet.
Reward’s latest insights reveal that essential spending now accounts for 58% of household budgets, up from 48% just two years ago, as consumers prioritise value and necessity. Every purchase is being more carefully considered than ever.
This mirrors EY-Parthenon’s latest report, which found that over half (56%) of listed UK retailers issuing profit warnings in Q3 2025 cited weaker consumer confidence – the highest in more than two years. Combined with policy uncertainty, a delayed Budget, and global headwinds, retailers are navigating peak season in an environment defined by caution and competition.
At Reward, we understand the pressures retail leaders face – sustaining growth, managing margin, and maintaining loyalty amid shifting consumer behaviour. Against this backdrop, the key question becomes – how can retailers connect with shoppers in ways that drive relevance, impact, and measurable results?
Success this season will belong to those who act with speed, respond with agility, and use data for smarter investment – in campaigns and channels that deliver measurable growth.
And increasingly, that’s where commerce media is leading the way.
Commerce Media as a Growth Engine
Commerce media is fast becoming a growth engine for retailers – helping them reach customers where they already spend their time, from digital content platforms to everyday online journeys.
By engaging shoppers in the channels they consume information, commerce media brings marketing closer to the point of decision-making. But to unlock its full potential, it must be powered by clear, robust insight and measured by proven, incremental results.
Actionable Insights Matter
In today’s fast-moving retail environment, waiting weeks for post-campaign analysis simply isn’t an option. Retailers need real-time visibility into consumer spending patterns so they can adapt as behaviours shift.
Rapid, actionable insight enables marketing teams to spot changes in shopper habits as they happen, reallocate investment to the audiences and offers with the highest conversion potential, and launch activation strategies that are timely, relevant, and measurable.
At Reward, we know agility has never mattered more – and the brands best placed to thrive are those that can move with their customers, not after them.
Turning Challenges into Opportunities with Intelligent Activation
This is where Reward Intelligent Activation comes in. By combining deep consumer insight, precision targeting, and closed-loop measurement, we enable retailers to understand customers faster and act smarter.
Powered by spending insight from billions of banking transactions, Reward reveals when, why, and how consumers are shopping – providing not only a clear view of customer behaviour, but also market-wide intelligence to help brands react quickly to shifting trends.
Our approach helps retailers tailor campaigns to shifting patterns in near-real-time, maximise ROI by ensuring every activity drives incremental sales, and protect margin by focusing investment on the actions proven to deliver results. In short, we work alongside our partners to give them the intelligence and confidence to act decisively – even in uncertain times.
Looking Ahead
Retailers can’t control the economy, fiscal policy, or competitor behaviour. But they can control how intelligently they use insight to guide activation. The winners this Peak Season will be those who respond fastest, spend smartest, and measure everything.
At Reward, we believe Intelligent Activation isn’t just a way to navigate a challenging Golden Quarter – it’s a way to build resilience, strengthen customer loyalty, and unlock sustainable growth for the year ahead.
